Abstract:
Background: Leishmaniasis remains one of the world's most neglected vector-borne diseases, affecting predominantly
poor communities mainly in developing countries. Previous studies have shown that the distribution and
dynamics of leishmaniasis infections are sensitive to environmental factors, however, there are no studies on the
burden of leishmaniasis attributable to time-varying meteorological variables.
Methods: This study used data from 3 major leishmaniosis afflicted provinces of Afghanistan, between 2003 and
2009, to provide empirical analysis of change in heat/cold-leishmaniosis association. Non-linear and delayed
exposure-lag-response relationship between meteorological variables and leishmaniasis were fitted with a distributed
lag non-linear model applying a spline function which describes the dependency along the range of
values with a lag of up to 12 months. We estimated the risk of leishmaniasis attributable to high and low temperature.
Results: The median monthly mean temperature and rainfall were 16.1 °C and 0.6 in., respectively. Seasonal variations
of leishmaniasis were consistent between males and females, however significant differences were observed
among different age groups. Temperature effects were immediate and persistent (lag 0–12 months).
Description:
This scholarly work was carried out by Majeed A. Adegboye, Jamiu Olumoh, Timor Saffary, Faiz Elfaki and Oyelola A. Adegboye. It is published on Elsevier online journal. on https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.401
