Abstract:
The rise of Boko Haram activities in Northern Nigeria, particularly in the North-East, has led to frequent killings and the destruction of both public and private property, especially in areas like Yobe and Maiduguri. The safety of lives and property in this region is no longer guaranteed. In this study, we proposed and examined a stochastic model to understand and manage the dynamics of Boko Haram insurgency alongside counter-terrorism operations. We derived the differential equations that form the basis of the model and conducted simulations using the adaptivetau package in R. The findings indicate that counter-terrorism strategies have a significant effect on combating Boko Haram insurgencies. Consequently, we recommend that the Nigerian Army, with substantial support from the Air Force, intensify efforts to overcome the Boko Haram insurgency, including the acquisition of modern weaponry, the establishment of vigilante groups, and the implementation of rehabilitation programs to maintain the defeat of Boko Haram.
Description:
Jama’atuAhlis Sunna Lidda’awatiwal-Jihad, commonly referred to as "Boko Haram," represents the most extreme form of violence in Nigeria's Fourth Republic. As of now, Nigeria is the third most affected country globally by terrorism, a ranking it has maintained since 2015. According to the 2020 Global Terrorism Index (GTI), only Iraq and Afghanistan have worse rankings than Nigeria, which has been grappling with violent insurgency in its northeastern region since 2009. While the majority of attacks occur in northern and North-East Nigeria, there have also been a considerable number of incidents in other areas. Notable attacks have taken place in Gombe, Kano, Kaduna, Jos, and Bauchi States, as well as in the Federal capital, Abuja, with the potential for more incidents in the future. Targets have included public venues where large groups of people gather, such as places of worship, markets, shopping centers, hotels, bars, restaurants, football viewing areas, displacement camps, transportation hubs, government buildings, and educational institutions (including schools, colleges, and universities), as well as international organizations.
